Forecasting the Catastrophe

An Analysis of When and Where the Next Great
Earthquake on the West Coast Will Strike
$12.95

Earthquake prediction? How? The author, a former LAUSD earthquake preparedness coordinator for fifteen years, pieces together an astounding history of past earthquakes, and uses that pattern to formulate 181 specific times and dates of higher probability for seismic activity on the West Coast to the year 2020. His previous work, "Predicting the Next Great Quake" caused something of a stir on the West Coast in the 90s, successfully forecasting half a dozen large seismic events, including the May 2, 1996 magnitude 5.4 Seattle quake, which struck no more than 69 minutes away from the time and date predicted.

Why have there been so many historic earthquakes on the West Coast that occurred at dawn and dusk, and moreover, those particular hours of the day during new and full Moon phases? How is it that quakes separated by years, even decades, keep striking at the same time of day, during the same phases of the month, within minutes, within seconds of each other? And why has a solution to the problem of earthquake prediction eluded this nation for so long?

Forecasting the Catastrophe attempts to answer those questions, by connecting the interlocking parts of a scientific detective story that ranges from the steppes of Russia, to the jungles of Central America, and back to the San Andreas Fault Zone in the United States.  Remarkable evidence concerning what has been hypothesized about quake prediction--from as early as ancient times, all the way to the present--gives a thought-provoking overview of how this topic has remained in scientific limbo for so many centuries. 

This is the book that might initiate the first steps to be taken toward the creation of an early warning system for the West Coast.  Forecasting the Catastrophe is changing people's opinions about whether or not that might actually be a possibility.  If you believe that earthquake prediction is "impossible," this book may cause you to at least look again, with perhaps changed results after an open-minded reading.  For those who already assume that forecasting earthquakes should be a plausibility, in some form or fashion, to some degree, entering the second decade of the 21st Century, it is a clear, unambiguous call to action .

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