Earthquake Predictors
"Forecasting the Catastrophe"
A new release by David Nabhan, author of "Predicting The Next Great Quake"
When Will The Next "Big One" Hit?
Forecasting the Catastrophe, #1 Best Selling Kindle and paperback title on Amazon.com in Earth Science and Seismology category (Mar, Nov & Dec 2011)
Order ebook $3.95 (Kindle version)
Order Paperback $12.95 (amazon, bn.com, UK, etc.)
It's not only feasible to give a very plausible response to the question above, but also to advise there's something that YOU can do about it.
Please see email link to the Honorable California Governor Jerry Brown below.
Is it possible to have advance warning for the next great earthquake?
Headed by six scientists, Japan’s Tokai Warning System constantly evaluates seismic data for possible precursory evidence. If an event is deemed imminent, TWS has far-reaching emergency powers. China has the State Seismological Bureau in Beijing. The SSB’s Center for Analysis and Prediction has functioned as China’s warning system for over thirty-five years and is still in place today. The SSB has made many successful predictions of time, place and magnitude, evacuating hundreds of thousands of persons scant hours before earthquakes have struck.
Sylmar, 6:00 AM. Whittier Narrows, 7:42 AM. Sierra Madre, 7:43 AM. Big Bear. 7:50 AM. Landers, 4:47 AM. Gorman, 4:51 AM. Northridge, 4:50 AM. Long Beach, 5:54 PM. The number of large quakes (6.0 or greater) that have struck Southern California between 1933 and 1994 occurring at either dawn or dusk is far too large to be the result of random chance. Add to that the fact that all but one of the quakes listed above also occured not only at precisely either new or full moon phase but at very tightly celestially focused phases--called near-syzygy events--and the probability for mere coincidence is catapulted into the range of the absurdly astronomical.
The great quakes on the U.S. West Coast north of Southern California also fit this historic pattern. The Great San Francisco Earthquake (1906) clocked in at 5:12 AM; Loma Prieta (1989) struck almost precisely 12 hours later: 5:04 PM. Anchorage was destroyed on Good Friday, 1964 at 5:36 PM. The last “Big One” on the Southern San Andreas (1857) hit Fort Tejon in the early morning. The May 2, 1996 magnitude 5.4 Seattle earthquake, the second largest in that city’s recent history, rocked the Puget Sound area no more than 69 minutes outside the time and date forecasted in “Predicting the Next Great Quake” , David Nabhan’s previous book.
There is solid evidence which strongly supports the hypothesis that solar and lunar tides working in tandem have a hand in triggering quakes on the West Coast. Considering the list of large quakes that have struck in Southern California from 1933 to 1994, almost a third of those temblors took place during near-syzygy events: at dawn or dusk during new or full moon phases no more than 2 1/2 degrees out of perfect alignment (just short of an eclipse). The same can be said for the Great Alaska Earthquake, the largest earthquake ever to have occurred in North America, and the May 2, 1996 Seattle quake referenced above.
Is this pattern merely coincidence, or are there underlying, scientific reasons for these cycles?
Nabhan points to very plausible evidence that lunar and solar tidal forces are part of the dynamics in the triggering of earthquakes. The author has also uncovered a large body of scientific works, published in the world's scientific journals, and dating back to the middle of the 1800s, which strongly supports this thesis. Recent studies published in the journal Science, and conducted by a consortium of UCLA and Japanese seismologists also support this view. With regard to the series of quakes listed above that have struck repeatedly within such infinitesimallly thin time windows, for "coincidence" to be at the heart of things, one need accept random probabilities akin to winning the California lottery multiple times--hardly within the bounds of plausibility.
And what does the USGS say about earthquake prediction?
Earthquake prediction is, oddly enough, almost a taboo field of study for the United States Geological Survey (USGS); unfortunately the very governmental agency nominally in charge of making progress in this area. USGS's conservative approach has drawn criticism from prominent seismologists worldwide. With the media's attention drawn to this topic over the last fifteen years, mainstream seismologists have now amended their century-long "impossible" view on this subject, and now admit that lunar and solar tidal triggering of quakes is indeed factual, yet so far only proved for "small quakes" and that the evidence is not yet in regarding the "Big Ones" (see AOL News below).
What is the media saying about "Forecasting the Catastrophe"? David Nabhan has been interviewed over a hundred times over the last fifteen years (including nationwide TV and radio). See "MEDIA LINKS" section below for a large selection of talk radio and/or print interviews over the last few years, all free, from all over the world, in English and in Spanish. Also, for recent premium subscriber venues:
November, 2011: George Noory's "Coast to Coast AM" show (#1 Late Night talk radio in US), Monday, Nov 14, 10-11:30 PM PST.
http://www.coasttocoastam.com/show/2011/11/14 September 2011: Whitley Strieber's "Dreamland Radio" Friday, Sept. 21
http://www.unknowncountry.com/dreamland/earthquakes-cant-be-predictedor-can-they
And most importantly, is there anything you can do about this? In each of the media interviews below a public request has been made that fair-minded and concerned citizens contact the Honorable California Governor Jerry Brown to voice their opinion that he empanel the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council to pass judgement on the viability or fallibility of the earthquake advisory plan outlined in Forecasting the Catastrophe. That body is to be convened whenever California's chief executive is made aware of any predictive or precursory plan having to do with seismic safety on the West Coast. After hearing the case being made--on the air, in the public forum--it is hoped that visitors to this site will take a moment to make their opinion known to the governor. He can be contacted by email at http://www.gov.ca.gov/m_contact.php (Please click "Environment Issues" under the "Choose Your Subject" heading, and you have my unqualified thanks in advance!)
To read the published request that Governor Brown empanel California's advisory council, please click the science journal EdgeScience. The article "Courting Disaster" outlines explicit reasons to support that appeal, along with the specific data concerning the earthquakes that struck in Southern California during the 20th Century and upon which "Forecasting the Catastrophe" is based.
MEDIA LINKS:
Irish Side of the Moon Talk Radio, Ireland Jan/2012
Bill Meyers Show, KMED Click Mon, Nov 21, 8:00 AM archive
Southern Oregon
Click news item detailing 4.8 quake which transpired on 10/26/2011--KCRA Sacramento Quake Report --and then juxtapose with what was declared prior in the plainest English imaginable on Rob McConnell's "X-Zone" below (Sept 1)
Rob McConnell's "X-Zone" Broadcast worldwide (the Americas, Europe,
Talk Star Radio Network Asia, Africa, Oceania) October 31, 2011
Rob McConnell's "X-Zone" Broadcast worldwide (the Americas, Europe,
Talk Star Radio Network Asia, Africa, Oceania) Sept 1, 2011
Article in science journal EdgeScience "Courting Disaster" (April, 2011)
Mantz and Mitchell in the Morning, Seattle Talk <- Click & "download" for option to save or
Radio, KKNW 1150, 3-19-11 (link to MP3 file) simply play/ all others below are hyperlinks..
Article in "Naked Scientists," Consortium "The San Andreas' Fault...or Ours?
of Cambridge Univ Scientists' Magazine, UK December 10, 2010
Kate Delaney's "America Tonight" Nationally syndicated, Nov 15, 2010
KSRO Morning News (Bay Area) Interviewed by David Page, Oct 14, 2010
WZTK FM Talk (Charlotte, NC) Allan Handelman Show, May 22, 2010
Politics Daily (April 21, 2010) "Earthshaking Theory"
AOL News (April 20, 2010) "Do Moon Phases Trigger Earthquakes?"
KZSB Talk Radio (Santa Barbara) Two hour-long interviews...click MAY 18
and May 25, 2010
Chilean Report (in Spanish) Portalnet Commentary from South America
Quotes about Predicting the Next Great Quake and Forecasting the Catastrophe:
"The theory deserves to be taken note of."--Dr. Kate Hutton, Chief Seismologist, California Institute of Technology, to Los Angeles Weekly, April, 1997
"If proven, this would be the 'Holy Grail' of seismology." --Conan Nolan, KNBC News, Los Angeles, 1997
"Nabhan's forecasts nailed three of the largest seismic events on the West Coast in 1996."-- Erin Aubrey, Staff Writer, Los Angeles Weekly, 1997
"Ladies and gentlemen, you read it here first: Nabhan's near dead-on calculation for the August 20 shaker near Wrightwood."--Theresa Moreau, Pasadena Weekly, 1998
"Whether or not Nabhan can predict earthquakes, he certainly predicts seismic skepticism."--David Moye, AOL News, 2010
"While some studies indicate that tidal effects may have an effect on smaller quakes, there's no evidence they have an effect on bigger quakes."--Dr. Tom Jordan, Director, Southern California Earthquake Center, 2010
"It's such a no-no! Seismologists won't even talk about it!"--Kate Delaney, America Tonight, 2010
"It is simply mind-boggling that with the evidence Nabhan has placed in front of scientific and governmental authorities over the last two decades, that they still are reluctant to move forward to at least consider the early warning advisory system he proposes. Simply mind-boggling."-- Rob Mc Connell, X-Zone. 9/1/11
"We're not interested in anyone claiming that the sky is falling, but David Nabhan is a rational man who has studied earthquakes seriously and has intelligent, useful information to offer."--Whitley Strieber, Dreamland Radio Show, 10/22/11
"This is the multi-billion dollar question. Does David Nabhan have the answer?"
David Page, KSRO Morning News, San Francisco, 2011
Forecasting the Catastrophe may well contain those answers. Please click "About the Book" page for more information and/or for links to amazon.com and barnesandnobles.com to order a copy.
AND...For Science Fiction fans... please click here for a look at Pilots of Borealis, an "incredibly fast-moving, thoroughly unpredictable view of the future--astounding, terrifying, and more than anything, plausible."
"Captivating! An intricately designed and superbly entertaining tale of intrigue, politics and well-written science. If a few tears don't well up in your eyes as you read it, check your pulse."
--Dr. Paul C. Burton
Publisher, Burton Digital Books
"A page-turner that kept me on the edge of my seat from the first page to the last. What an ending!"
--David Pierre
Author, Double Standard
Contacts
DAVID NABHAN, AUTHOR (davidwrites200@aol.com)
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UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
LATEST USA EARTHQUAKES MAP
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
LATEST WORLD EARTHQUAKE MAP
CALIFORNIA SCIENCE CENTER EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS
PLANS/TIPS
CAL TECH SEISMOLOGICAL LABORATORY
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEISMIC NETWORK/ LATEST EARTHQUAKE MAP
VOLCANO HAZARD ALERTS
