Is it possible to have advance warning for the next great earthquake?
Regarding the century long mantra of impossibility that has attached itself to seismic forecasting in the US, the facts may say otherwise. Japan’s Tokai Warning System constantly evaluates seismic data for possible precursory evidence, and if an event is deemed imminent, has far-reaching emergency powers. China's State Seismological Bureau Center for Analysis and Prediction has functioned as China’s warning system for over 35 years and has made many successful predictions of time, place and magnitude, evacuating thousands of persons scant hours before earthquakes have struck.
Sylmar, 6:00 AM. Whittier Narrows, 7:42 AM. Sierra Madre, 7:43 AM. Gorman, 4:51 AM. Northridge, 4:30 AM. Long Beach, 5:54 PM. Six large quakes (magnitude 5.8 to 7.3), every tremor powerful enough to have caused fatalities within a 70 mile radius of Los Angeles' city center, struck Southern California between 1933 and 1994. Every one of them occured either within a tight 3 hour window at dawn or a corresponding time interval at dusk. According to USGS's "Deaths from US Earthquakes," 265 people died in those very quakes (that number also being the total seismic death toll for Greater LA for those years). Moreover, two thirds of those events also took place not only either at dawn or dusk, but within equally anomalous near-syzygy dates: within 36 hours of the precise instant of new or full moon phases. Taking into account the stupendous warping power of the lunar and solar tides when combined, and calculating the odds, the probability is worthy of mention. Plainly stated, that every single human being who perished in an earthquake in Metropolitan Los Angeles between 1933 and 1994 should have died either at dawn or at dusk, and due to temblors 2/3 of which striking during a new or full moon phase, can be summed up in two simple words: quite implausible.
The great quakes on the U.S. West Coast north of Southern California also fit this historic pattern. The Great San Francisco Earthquake (1906) clocked in at 5:12 AM; Loma Prieta (1989) struck almost precisely 12 hours later: 5:04 PM. Anchorage was destroyed on Good Friday, 1964 at 5:36 PM--47 minutes away from the exact moment when the Moon entered the greatest extent of it's fullness. The last “Big One” on the Southern San Andreas (1857) hit Fort Tejon in the early morning. The May 2, 1996 magnitude 5.4 Seattle earthquake, the largest in that city’s history since 1965, rocked the Puget Sound area no more than 9 minutes outside the time and date forecasted in David Nabhan’s first book. The October 29, 2012 mag. 6.4 shaker that jolted Vancouver evidenced itself precisely within the 3 hour time/date window, published 30 months in advance of the event, in his second. There is fairly solid evidence to support the hypothesis that solar and lunar tides working in tandem might actually have a hand in at least helping to trigger tremors on the West Coast.
Is this pattern merely coincidence, or are there underlying, scientific reasons for these cycles?
Aside from the empirical evidence above that points to lunar and solar tidal forces as part of the dynamics in the triggering of earthquakes, there are reams of peer-reviewed studies that support this thesis. The data is found in a large body of scientific works published in the world's scientific journals, and dating back to the middle of the 1800s. Recent studies published in the journal Science, conducted by a consortium of UCLA and Japanese seismologists in 2004, and by a team at Paris' Diderot University in 2009 also reiterate this view. Researchers at La Sapienza University in Rome in 2006 determined that lunar tides were not only powerful enough to trigger potential quakes, but sufficient for feats of supreme overkill, such as dragging westward the entire North American continent (see National Geographic article). Further, NASA through a grant to Harvard-Smithsonian Astrophysics has funded the dessimination of hundreds of studies that indicate two unassailable American icons consider the matter at the very least a subject of debate. (Put "tidal triggering of earthquakes" into this search field: SAO/NASA). Therefore, with regard to the series of quakes listed above that have struck repeatedly within such thin time windows, there are much better reasons than chance and luck for cogent explanations. Indeed, for "coincidence" to be at the heart of things, one need accept random probabilities hardly within the bounds of acceptability.
And what does the USGS say about earthquake prediction?
Earthquake prediction has been almost a taboo field of study for the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the very governmental agency in charge of making progress in this area, leaving their conservative approach to draw criticism from prominent seismologists worldwide. With the media's attention turned to this topic over the last sixteen years, seismology has lately amended the century-long view on this subject, and now accepts that lunar and solar tidal triggering of quakes is indeed factual, yet so far only proved for "small quakes" and that the evidence is not yet in regarding the "Big Ones" (see AOL News below, 2010).
Everyone is interested in the big quakes. Even if it's proven that "small" quakes can be triggered by gravitational tides, so what?
Dr. Tom Jordan (Director, SoCal Earthquake Center) told AOL News when asked about Earthquake Prediction: Answers in Plain Sight that studies have connected tides and "small" quakes. At the same time, though, the most prominent spokesperson of the USGS, Dr. Lucy Jones, recently told UK news anchor Marco Werman that, "The fact is, as far as we can tell, big and small quakes all start out the same way." Tides having an effect on "smaller quakes" (Dr. Jordan) and all quakes "starting out small" (Dr. Jones) should be of interest to West Coast residents. That same sort of connection was at least entertained by Dr. Kate Hutton, Chief Seismologist at Cal Tech, and certainly one of the world's most prominent and respected seismologists. When asked similar questions by the Los Angeles Weekly in 1997 she gave the laconic reply, "(Nabhan's) theory deserves to be taken note of."
What is the media saying about "Earthquake Prediction: Answers in Plain Sight"?
David Nabhan has been interviewed over two hundred times over the last fifteen years (including nationwide TV and radio). See "MEDIA LINKS" section below for a large selection of talk radio and/or print interviews over the last few years, all free, from all over the world, in English and in Spanish.
And most importantly, is there anything you can do about this?
In each of the media interviews below a public request has been made that fair-minded and concerned citizens contact the Honorable California Governor Jerry Brown to voice their opinion that he convene the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council to pass judgement on the viability or fallibility of the earthquake advisory plan outlined in Earthquake Prediction: Answers in Plain Sight. That panel is the consultative body California's chief executive relies on regarding any predictive or precursory plan having to do with seismic safety on the West Coast. After hearing the case being made--on the air, in the public forum--it is hoped that visitors to this site will take a moment to make their opinion known to the governor. He can be contacted by email at http://www.gov.ca.gov/m_contact.php Please click "Environment Issues" under the "Choose Your Subject" heading, and you have unqualified thanks in advance.
Journal of San Diego History (Summer, 2013 quarterly edition)
refereed paper (University of San Diego) Pattern of Seismicity in Southern California Reviewed: 60 year old So Cal scholarly journal
Northern California Talk Radio: KFIV Modesto/Stockton/Merced
Earthquake Warning System 8-22-13
San Francisco Examiner (8-7-13) Op-ed/Commentary Page
"California Needs to Take Earthquake Prediction More Seriously"
Modesto Bee (6-13-2013) Columnist Jeff Jardine
Modesto/Stockton, California "Quake Advisories Aren't Predictions"
KZIM/KSIM Morning News Watch May 20, 2013
Cape Girardeau, Sikeston, MO area News radio 960 &1400 AM
Host: award-winning, SE Missouri broadcast icon, Faune Riggin
Popular Science Radio Hosts Alan Taylor & Dr. Stoskopf
broadcast nationwide from Los Angeles April 20, 2013 (Min. 30-45)
Entertainment Radio Network <--scroll to 1/2 (30 min.) mark to begin
or click HERE for extracted interview. (See Dr. Stoskopf quote below.)
Southeast Missouri's Standard-Democrat Sikeston, Missouri
May 19, 2013 Front page, Sunday Edition
Bill Buckmaster Show KVOI AM 1030 "The Voice of Tucson"
Select 4-22-2013 audio archive & scroll to minutes 45 to 55 Tucson, AZ
Afternoons Live with Dave Diamond <--before quake April 9, 2013
Fox Radio KFIV Modesto/Stockton Northern California
and May 29 follow-up interview.<---after quake
Tara on TMA Morning Show News talk WTMA, Charleston, SC
Select 4-15-2013 podcast and scroll to minutes 43 to 56
Los Angeles Daily News Sunday Edition, Commentary Page
"Earthquake Forcasts' Time Has Come" by David Nabhan (11/4/12)
(& Long Beach Press Telegram, Ventura Star, Torrance Daily Breeze, Salem OR Statesman, and other West Coast dailies' opinion pages)
David Cruz Show, KFI, Los Angeles Select Oct 28, 2012 show
Los Angeles' premier talk radio venue minutes 43 to 51
"Earthquake Signs in Plain Sight" OpEd Article by D. Nabhan (9/4/12)
published by Columbia Daily Tribune 3rd largest paper in Missouri
British Talk Radio, City Talk 105.9 Radio Liverpool, Manchester,
City 96.7 Peter Price Show (Aug 2, 2012) Stafford, Preston, UK
Interviewed by iconic British media presenter, Peter Price
*If problems are experienced clicking on Peter Price Show, please access it from HERE.
Michelle Jackson's "News Network" Monterey, Carmel, Salinas, CA
Aired August 26, 2012 Michelle's KRXA 540 AM Show Site
Earthquakes, Predictions & Possibilities" News Magazine Despierten
"Terremotos, Predicciones y Posibilidades" 1250 word Op-Ed article in Spanish
Caracas, Venezuela (published Aug 1, 2012) Includes list of all remaining higher probability 3 hour seismic windows for 2012
Swirl Radio Click Aug 11, 2012 archive (Min 28 to 33) San Francisco, Sacramento, Seattle, Boston, Carmel or access the interview directly HERE.
LA Talk Radio Sam in the Morning On air from Minute 14 to 38
With Brigetta (Click 5-18-2012 archive) Los Angeles, California